Estimation Errors

Is there any theory that talks to human optimism or pessimism when making estimates in the context of contracts. I have worked with project managers who when estimating effort & duration look to counter the uplift applied by people who think they’re going to have to do what they’re estimating and will be treated more harshly for being late than early. There’s some type I & type II error stuff here. I think it also applies to risk probability estimation, the cost of not reserving and the reputation damage to the assessor (of under estimating) may both lead to an over-estimate being made.

Surowiecki, in wisdom of crowds states that the betting exchanges (and books) are accurate estimators more so than opinion polls because people have measurable stake in the decision.

Has anyone written about this?

Auto-translating a web page

I am going to re-purpose http://test.davelevy.info. At the moment it is set up for some experimentation with stylist.org and translation buttons. The stylist implementation just involved capturing some of the bullet item i.e. list item within a class name, so that the local stylist rules could be applied. I was looking at Stylist because the of the Neverwinter Vault but that’s gone now. Continue reading “Auto-translating a web page”

Multiple Audio channels on Windows 8

For various reasons at work, I am mucking around with multiple audio channels, from mic to disk, from mic to app, etc.. Windows 8, doesn’t seem to have an easy way to switch, or at least the sound control panel applet is hidden away behind several buttons…. no it’s not, searching for sound will find it. I was going to look for a switcher , here’s what google finds! What we really want is plug and play, but how does it know which one is the one I really need. Continue reading “Multiple Audio channels on Windows 8”

Crossroads Keep

In my run through Neverwinter Nights 2, I have come to the Keep, which is the Stronghold for the protagonist. I have never played D&D with a “stronghold” before and this one would seem to have a lot of playing within it. I hope it doesn’t lead to too much of the resource based gamesplay style; but it seems there’s plenty of fetch and carry quests and Kana looks ready to keep me busy. Continue reading “Crossroads Keep”

New looks for web sites

Good web design is changing again. Is it the influence of the growth of mobile devices? It’s certainly influenced my adoption of Nulis on the blog. They are picture rich, with lots of white space, borderless and short columns (often implementing lists) and strong rows! (They also tend to go to the second page by racking down, thus saving the delay of a page refresh.)

http://www.threatmatch.com/ is one example and http://guardtime.com/ is another. I have used a picture from Guardtime as my featured picture on this post. Both these sites are offering IT Security solutions, but they are both  an inspiration. At least to me. Continue reading “New looks for web sites”

Tag Clouds in WordPress

Tag Clouds have been bugging me for ages, and I have just installed, WP Category Tag Cloud, which is pretty awesome. I have used the short codes to set up a tag cloud on its own page, and also installed a moving three-D cloud on the About this Wiki page.  The featured picture is a picture generated by tagcloud. Continue reading “Tag Clouds in WordPress”

Huppert’s parliamentary record

I have been considering Julian Huppert’s record as an MP and have come across the following resources to help me understand it. I have of course seen him speak at the last three OrgCON conferences,  the recent Digital Question time and in the Westminster Hall debate on Snowden & GCHQ, which I reviewed in my blog article, “Who watches the Watchmen?”. I also talk about him here, in an article called “Grandstanding”. where I examine the growing trivialisation of his position dated from his support of Drip. It seems he’s been bugging me for a while, here’s more of my ranting. In this last piece I suggest he puts his party before the cause , and it now would seem that he now puts himself before his party.  We should note that the “Public Whip” documents his acts of rebellion to the ConDem government at 3.5%. Continue reading “Huppert’s parliamentary record”

Nulis, a new image header

I am thinking of expanding Nulis across my web estate and thought I might use a different header image for the blog. I experimented with using this as a the image or as a base for the image.

The image above is implemented as a hyperlink to the image hosted on flickr.  It is registered as  Copyright All rights reserved by lloydich, taken in 2014. It seems I need permission. Let’s see if he’ll give it to me, if not I’ll have to use one of mine.